Tuesday, January 6, 2009

NFL Playoffs - Division Round

Round 2 of the NFL playoffs are here. I have some thoughts for each game plus some tidbits from the BS Report Playoff Mega Podcast. I figure the best thing to do with that podcast is to filter an hours worth of details, views, hunches, etc. and pick out the ones that make the most sense to me. I'd like to pull off a ProLine victory this week. The ProLine odds aren't out yet but here is what I'm thinking about match-up:

Eagles at Giants

1. The Eagles just barely beat the Vikings and the Giants are a much better team than the Vikes.
2. The Giants are rested. Very rested in some cases - Brandon Jacobs.
3. The Eagles nailed 4 field goals...in the dome. I don't see that happening at Giant Stadium in what could be poor weather conditions.

Final thought - I think Coughlin is the better coach and the Giants will come out rushing the ball and get a lead then pass rush and force McNabb into bad decisions. A formula Brad Childress should have used.

Chargers at Steelers

1. Sproles will face a tougher and faster linebacking core in Pittsburgh this week. 4 linebackers vs 3 too. (hat tip to podcast for that one).
2. Pittsburgh doesn't have a good enough offense to blow the game open so this could be anyone's ball game with 2 minutes to go in the 4th quarter.

Final thought - I'm all for the little man playing a big role. I stand only 5'7 myself and I think if I was to play football I'd like to be the 3rd down back or change of pace back. Mainly because I wouldn't be able to sustain the pounding (or have the speed) of an everyday back. I also don't have the speed or vision for a cornerback so where else does a 5'7 guy play. Don't say kicker! This is silly talk...I wouldn't be able to take a NFL hit...Back to my thought...I just don't see the shifty Sproles running well on the Pittsburgh field in the cold against a top ranked defense and mean linebackers. I see Pittsburgh doing enough on offense to compliment the defense and win the game.

Titans vs Ravens

1. Flacco wasn't great against a Miami rush and what he faces vs the Titans will be much better (hat tip to podcast). Jeff Fisher will prepare his defense to put Flacco in bad spots. I'll take the Veteran Coach/QB vs the Rookie Coach/QB

....that's basically my one and only thought. I think the game will be close on the scoreboard but the Titans will control the game. This is a team that dominated the NFL for pretty much the entire season (forget the Jets loss and some mediocre performances post Conference clinch) and shouldn't be taken lightly. (hat tip - cousin sal).

Panthers vs Cardinals

1. The Cardinals just did not play well enough on the road.
2. Boldin is laboring and that's going to hurt them.
3. I doubt Edge can repeat his performance on the road even if the Panthers are a low ranked run D.
4. The Panthers are a big play offensive team and the Cardinals will put themselves in bad spots to be beat by the big play (round about way of saying "expose themselves" but that just sounds wrong). (hat tip podcast for the "big play" game factor).

Final thought - it scares me that people are talking up the Panthers. They always seem to be a Superbowl favorite at some point in every NFL season for the past few years. Despite that, I just don't think the Cards are a good enough playoff road team.

Summary - Winners will be Giants, Steelers, Titans, Panthers...all home teams and no underdogs so that can't be right.

Now I need the rest of the week to figure out if they will cover the spread.

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